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While you can have your own opinion, you can’t have your own facts. This is in addition to these same workers being much more productive and working more hours. While I agree with your overall conclusion on the wisdom of holding some assets out of the market this far into a bull run, your point #4 is very much not correct. Inflation adjusted income in the US is nearly 75% higher than it was in the 60’s.
You say you have been investing in individual stocks for 30 years. You don’t get to just show us the last 10 years of your investing. Those first 20 years were your learning curve. Anyone who starts investing the way you do is going to have a learning curve as well.
It seems like Q3 was 4.5 NAV and 5.6 share price. And now more 4.6 share price and NAV around 5.6. For more casual fp markets reviews sampling, have a look at this complete list of all posts since the beginning of time or download the mobile app.
When I want to start working more (meaning 30 hrs per week, which you’re entitled to until your kid reaches a certain age), I’ll be able to save % of my income. I’m basically trying to optimize my savings and time spent with the kid. Result is that on the initial investment from 2000 on my 18th birthday now 16 years later I have not even a total growth of 20%.
You can look at their price compared to their assets, or “book value”. The reason to celebrate is that is a completely normal and healthy part of investing. Stocks have been on an almost uninterrupted climb since I started this blog in 2011, which may have given beginners an unrealistically rosy picture. But now we’re seeing a more natural pattern, and I’m glad. Because this actually means more wealth for all of us.
The vix is an indicator that measures the amount of put buying which is basically portfolio insurance. Buying when the vix spikes has done very well in the past. A lot of what I like about the MMM blog is that it is about becoming responsible for yourself.
If you moved here with your standard American “nothing is impossible” attitude beefed up by MMM knowledge and a good entrepreneurial mindset, you could be a millionaire in no time flat. I’m pretty conservative and don’t like having debt so that’s why I’m trying to pay it off as soon as I can under my circumstances. Maybe once I start working and earning more, I’ll go (now it’s more like 70 % on mortgage and 30 % in index funds). I’m a single mom living in northern Europe and due to our country’s very good social security system, I’m able to only work part-time , leaving me enough time to be with my 2-year old. Leading a rather mustachian life, I’m still able to save about 45 % of my income, including mortgage.
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I’m looking to deploy a small amount of UK cash to take advantage of the exchange rate and buy somthing in euroland. Was looking more at Germany – especially at Siemens – and really enjoyed your piece on the Dax and returns since 1992. In general, I do not recommend any shares as I do not provide investment advice. Please consider what I write as my personal diary.
I even showed quite a few people the numbers and pretty much said I found a gold mine and they should get a shovel and dig. They just shrug, go to work in the morning and keep complaining that health insurance got 10 Euros more expensive. Germany is actually quite good for Mustachians if you are living solely on investment income .
It may not go up as much as the market as whole during booms, but I sure get my money’s worth when the market crashes. The best is a 15-year moving average of the S&P500 Index, adjusted for inflation. Over longer periods, you can beat a regular dollar-cost-averager by up to 50%. I was able to avoid buying anywhere near the peak of 2007, and with the money I didn’t invest then, I plowed into the market in late 2008 through 2010.
If Bananas go to 1 cent per pound, you can’t really benefit. But if rolled oats dropped to an all-time low, I’d probably buy at least a year’s supply .” The thought process works pretty well for the stock market too. I’m early on my journey to financial freedom and – no matter how many times I hear this message – it always give me a sense of comfort. Rationally, I know there is absolutely not reason to panic, but I can’t keep myself from the occasional painful flinch when I see my numbers drop.
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Stocks seemed too risky and I knew nothing about index funds. So I put away some of the money in a regular savings account, and with the rest, participated in the life update process for a number of years. It always seemed like I needed to update to yet another expensive piece of clothing, a trip to fancy ski resort or whatever.
Stocks by historical comparisons are at very high valuations. This does not mean that they can’t go higher and remain there for a long time, but chances are we are due for a more corrections. If those corrections are anything like the dotcom bubble bursting or a repeat of 2008 What Is Cryptocurrency: Definition and Example (or worse!) you will have a lot of stashes wiped out in a hurry. BTW, I’m a big fan of the blog and don’t mean to be argumentative. I simply think this is context your readers should consider. Or its possible that the international market is way undervalued relative to the US.
The real reason for the selloff, of course, was that people and institutions in financial trouble had to dump good companies for whatever price they could get to raise cash. The company was not worth $15, there was simply no liquidity to support its true value. This is when guys like Warren Buffett come in and buy. I don’t see any reason why any Countries stocks will always have an upwards trend. To me there is always the risk of things not improving by the time one retires. Personally, I have been using my investments to lower my cost of living (e.g. solar, geothermal,electric cars).
Some customers look East for cheaper oak forests but the firm has that covered with its Hungarian operation. I have covered this topic frequently and this is fx choice review one of the reasons why I don’t own more German small caps. I think that German companies can delist from stock exchange without a “fare” compensation/price.
- Mrs. Thriftyskate and I are still getting our ‘stash together.
- After 26 years investing and now that I’m retired I see indexing as a much smarter play.
- My 401k is invested in mutual funds and my Roth IRA is invested in individual stocks.
- Our portfolio is now where we projected it to be 5 years from now.
- The compound interest rate of 7% that MMM uses already takes interest into account.
- I’m not even suggesting that anyone sell stocks bought at low prices when they reach overvalued territory.
The realized price for Exozet was significant higher than you expected and the companies portfolio fits very well in the Corona-digitalization-hype we´re seeing in the valuations at the moment. So maybe they can make some more profitable exits in the next months at high price-levels. What is the difference between you reinvesting a 4% dividend and Buffett investing a 10% cash flow?
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Say you own a tobacco company like Altria that has a steady business and pays a fat dividend. Am I to suppose that because the subprime mortgage market has collapsed, everyone is going to give up smoking? Yes, the stock is priced for the end of the world, but I’m still getting a 10% dividend and the business still seems to be chugging along.
He warns about debt, but made a fortune using leverage (i.e. the float of his insurance companies). The man is a genius and legend, but Berkshire is so large now that he cannot time the market. If you own solid individual stocks that pay a good dividend, you don’t have to worry about ‘”withdrawals”. Provided your stocks all continue to pay, you can just take your dividends and not worry about the nominal price of the stock.
But if you’re asking whether I’m being sincere, then yes, absolutely. This means that the market has still not yet recovered in real terms from that bubble. I understand what you are saying about the opportunity cost of research. You are right to suggest that we all ought to have a threshold where we recognize that further research will be too much work for too little reward, when compared to our other options. ArmyDoc, this is a reality that is easily confirmed by empirical evidence—not just by reason. This dead horse has been so thoroughly beaten in the MMM forums I don’t think there is any reason to rehash it here in the comments section.
I moved from investing in mutual funds to investing in individual stocks years back because I thought many stocks had very poor fundamentals (PE, price/sales, debt/equity, etc). These days, even using my stock screeners, fundamentals are so poor, it’s hard to find any stocks that meet even my most minimum standards of the past. If I can’t find individual stocks worth their salt, why would I invest in the market as a whole?
When you’re buying stocks, you’re buying a share of a company’s earnings and assets. When you’re paying 2x-5x the normal price for those things, you’re going to have crappy returns. The whole idea of long term dollar cost averaging is that you wind up buying more shares when the market is down without having to figure out just when that is. So skip worrying about CAPE ratios, and forward expectations and keep putting money in every month. Don’t go on line to check how your portfolio did that day, and if you’re really righteous, don’t even open those monthly statements.
In addition, earnings continue to fall and financial engineering via non-GAAP pro forma earnings is back in vogue….. Another situation is I am a 50 year old with a medium size chunk of cash, that has been sitting on the sidelines for a long time, due to fear and stupidity. Plunking the whole thing into the market right now would be moronic, because the risks are just too high right now to make that kind of choice. And let’s face it, I would be more likely to sell out low due to watching the value of my portfolio wither away year after year if things go poorly, especially with my age. I’ve been very happy that I made the change which simplified things dramatically.